Bitcoin bull run according to plan B

Bitcoin bulls are on a roll.

On Dec. 17, the No. 1 cryptocurrency broke the sound barrier at $23,000 for the first time, continuing its lunar journey. With the price gains, the bullish forecasts also know no stopping. Opinion ECHO.

In the days following Bitcoin all-time highs, Twitter is a fun place to be. I-told-you-so slogans are being bandied about like there’s no tomorrow. Understandable, after all, it took the No. 1 cryptocurrency a whopping three years to get to the level it was trading at in late 2017.

To be best prepared for the coming bull run, it may be worth taking a look at past bitcoin cycles. Accordingly, an old acquaintance has put the gains from past bull markets on top of the price level. It is, you guessed it, PlanB.

PlanB is the originator of the stock-to-flow model. An uber-bullish price model that ties Bitcoin prices to the scarcity of the commodity. With each halving, BTC becomes scarcer, leading to exorbitant price swings in the medium term. Meanwhile, the question that is troubling the Bitcoin community is whether each halving reduces the returns, or price gains, compared to the previous cycle. While BTC made up about 10,000 percent from November 2012 to July 2016, it was „only“ 2,000 percent in the second halving epoch.

However, if BTC were to rise to PlanB’s predicted value of $288,000 by the end of 2021, that would mean a gain of about 2,800 percent from the underlying $10,000. However, this is not compatible with the narrative of diminishing returns.

Still, PlanB stands by its price prediction, writing on Twitter that people can get over the idea that cycles are getting longer and less profitable:

R.I.P. „lengthening cycles“ and „diminishing returns.“
PlanB

Let’s wait and see.

Guggenheim Partners: bitcoin’s fair value is $400,000

The continued bullish behavior of Guggenheim Partners also caused a stir. The asset manager had only recently announced that it wanted to invest up to 10 percent from the Macro Opportunities Fund capitalized with 5.3 billion US dollars in BTC. To some extent, this has already been done. The accumulation has begun since BTC stood at 10,000 US dollars.

Now Scott Minerd, chief strategist at Guggenheim, also explains why Bitcoin is considered a great opportunity. Internal analyses have shown a fair value of no less than 400,000 US dollars per Bitcoin, Minerd told Bloomberg. He said he was „delighted“ by the recent price rally.

Minerd links his daring price prediction of 400,000 US dollars to Bitcoin’s similarity to gold.

According to some analysts, $55,000 will be Bitcoin’s next goal

BTC has broken through another important resistance range: according to Willy Woo, on-chain analyst, $100,000 is an easily reachable target

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has broken through the resistance range of $21,000-$22,000 and reached a new All-Time High at $23,000 on 17 December. Meanwhile, on-chain analyst Willy Woo argues that $100,000 is a „ridiculously low“ target.

Weekly BTC/USD pair chart (Bitstamp). Source: Tradingview
Breaking above $21,000 was particularly important for Bitcoin so it could continue its short-term rally. Exchange heatmaps showed a wall of sell orders at around $21,000 to $21,500, which BTC’s price had to break through to sustain a broader bullish trend.

The Bitcoin Top Cap model frames $100,000 as a conservative target. Source: Woobull.com
Bitcoin enters price discovery phase
Exchange heatmaps show no visible resistance levels and areas with large sell orders above $22,000. This means that, in the short term, the probability of BTC continuing its rally is high.

Due to the optimistic market sentiment and the sales slump, Woo said BTC’s Top Cap Model considers $100,000 to be a „ridiculously low target“:

„We are not at the peak where the BTC Top Cap Model starts to curve upwards. Let’s see where it will go in 2021. $100,000 is a ridiculously low target according to the current trajectory. $55,000 is the next benchmark -> Bitcoin becomes a $1 trillion macro asset.“
Woo cited $55,000 as the next benchmark for Bitcoin, as it would mean the cryptocurrency would have reached 10% of gold’s market cap, currently estimated at around $9 trillion. Above $50,000, Bitcoin would begin to nibble away at a relatively large portion of the gold market cap, which remains the dominant asset in the safe haven space.

Order books and volume trends also show that traders have been moving their sell orders higher, expecting Bitcoin to rise to $30,000 after the $20,000 mark was finally breached yesterday.

If futures, options and spot markets continue to do well in the coming days, the probability of BTC reaching $30,000 as the first local top remains high.

Options markets show big institutions remain bullish
According to Deribit Insights, a subsidiary Bitcoin Compass of the largest crypto options exchange that focuses on research and data analysis, institutional funds remain bullish on Bitcoin.

In the options market, call options represent buy orders while put options refer to sell orders. Thus, when buyers of call spreads increase, it suggests that experts predict an even bigger rally for Bitcoin.

On Twitter, Deribit Insights claims that its parent company has identified large buyers of call spreads, which is indicative of a bullish trend.

However, a threat to Bitcoin in the near future could be whale influx. Data from CryptoQuant suggests that whale deposits on exchanges have risen to levels not seen since March 2020:

$BTC: median inflow (calculated at the end of the day) on all exchanges reached the highest levels in nine months. Such figures have not been seen since the huge sell-off in March.

Considering that Bitcoin has grown despite the increase in whale deposits and given that we are still in the early stages of institutional buying, BTC could still have a sustainable rally towards $30,000.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Study: Bitcoin investors are more bearish than expected

In a study, Genesis Mining examines the bullishness of Bitcoin investors. But the results suggest that the majority of those surveyed tend to have conservative to bearish price prospects.

Genesis Mining is actually known for gigantic mining farms in Scandinavia as well as its cloud mining services

However, the company founded by the German Marco Streng has now turned to mapping the Bitcoin sector. In a recently published study, the company examines market sentiment among 1,000 Bitcoin investors. Mind you, the study participants were all Bitcoin Superstar review investors with different allocations in BTC. A quarter has invested more than half of their assets in BTC, another 25 percent between 10 percent and 50 percent, 25 percent between one and ten percent and the rest less than one percent.

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The results are mixed and more bearish than expected. After all, 45.5 percent of those surveyed believe that the stock market will deliver better returns than Bitcoin in the next 5-10 years. There is also a wide range among the study participants in terms of the exact characteristics of upcoming bull runs. 16 percent believe that BTC will be between $ 10,000 and $ 20,000 by 2030. A full 10 percent even expect prices to fall and see BTC somewhere between USD 1,000 and 5,000.

About half see the exchange rate over USD 20,000 – with some drastic differences. About 7 percent believe BTC will be anywhere between $ 40,000 and $ 50,000. However, only a small proportion of those surveyed are ultra-bullish: 4.8 percent see BTC at USD 500,000 in 2030.

Half of the respondents are bearish

It is astonishing for market observers that almost half of the study participants assume that the “Orange Coin” will be worth less than or the same as this year. After all, BTC grew 160 percent in 2020. If you also consider that the respondents are Bitcoin investors who have been in the market for more or less a long time, the inclined Bitcoin can actually only wonder if the bearishness.

Because even if BTC just continued to grow at the same rate as before, the cryptocurrency will be at least USD 400,000 by the end of 2030. After all, the average annual growth is around 200 percent.

The overwhelming majority of the study participants see BTC as below 50,000. In other words: 81 percent believe that BTC will only increase in value by 40 percent in the next ten years, although the cryptocurrency has risen many times that year alone. That is amazing.

Fear of a ban is the main reason for negative price forecasts?

The main reasons for more conservative price estimates are perceived dangers such as impending regulations and a ban on Bitcoin and other crypto currencies.

However, the study allows some conclusions. First of all, information and price forecasts like the stock-to-flow model don’t seem to be very common even among Bitcoin fans. There is hardly any other explanation for the bearish stance. For bullish Bitcoiners, however, the study is good news. It shows how much room there is still upstairs. If investors outside of the Bitcoin scene had also been asked, the results would probably have been even more sobering.

«Bitcoin est notre meilleur espoir» – PDG de MicroStrategy

Le PDG de Microstrategy, Micheal Saylor, a déclaré que Bitcoin offrait à l’entreprise une opportunité en tant que réserve de valeur. Selon lui, la peur de tout perdre en raison des menaces d’inflation peut être annulée en investissant dans Bitcoin, qui peut agir comme un refuge de réserve du Trésor.

Pour la raison ci-dessus, le PDG a déclaré que «Bitcoin est notre meilleur espoir» dans l’un de ses récents tweets

Saylor a ajouté que Microstrategy se négociait en actions comme toutes les autres entreprises. Mais la différence ici est que ce sur quoi ils négocient est Bitcoin qui se trouve dans leurs réserves de trésorerie.

Après avoir ajouté le pari actuel de 650 millions de dollars sur Crypto Code aux avoirs de Microstrategy, la société détenant BTC est passée à plus d’un milliard de dollars.

La société avait d’abord acheté BTC pour une valeur de 250 millions de dollars en août, puis elle en a acheté un autre d’une valeur de 175 millions de dollars avant d‘ acheter récemment un autre cycle de l’actif cryptographique pour 50 millions de dollars.

Microstrategy pari récent de 650 millions de dollars sur Bitcoin

MicroStrategy a finalisé la vente de billets convertibles de 650 millions de dollars au taux d’intérêt de 0,750%. Les fonds générés par cette vente devraient servir à l’achat de plus de Bitcoin pour l’entreprise.

Dans un article de blog, la société a poursuivi en disant qu’elle avait l’intention d’investir les revenus générés dans Bitcoin. Cependant, la société supprimerait d’abord ses besoins en capital et les autres fonds qui pourraient être nécessaires pour ses opérations.

L’offre initiale était de 400 millions de dollars, mais elle a ensuite été augmentée à 550 millions de dollars. Les analystes de Citi avaient lancé un appel baissier à la société pour son réseau Bitcoin, mais cela ne les a pas découragés, car il reste encore 100 millions de dollars supplémentaires à gagner.

Hedge fund qui s’est fait un nom pour sa capacité à générer des rendements énormes, Renaissance Technology achète des actions de Microstrategy depuis le début de l’année.

Predicción de precios de Bitcoin: El BTC/USD se sitúa por debajo de la línea de tendencia alcista clave mientras que el precio se mueve a 18.615$.

Predicción de precios de Bitcoin (BTC) – 8 de diciembre

Los toros de BTC/USD han tenido el control total de la acción del precio de la cripto moneda ya que están perdiendo su ventaja sobre los vendedores.
Tendencia a largo plazo del BTC/USD: Alcista (Gráfico diario)

  • Niveles clave:
  • Niveles de resistencia: 20.500, 20.700, 20.900 dólares.
  • Niveles de apoyo: 17.500, 17.300, 17.100 dólares.
    BTCUSD – Gráfico diario

¿Subiría o bajaría Bitcoin?

La última reducción de precios ha hecho que el precio de 1k Daily Profit vea un fuerte recorte de más de 500 dólares, lo que supone una pérdida del 2,2% a medida que se mueve hacia el sur. En el tiempo que ha seguido a esta subida, BTC/USD ha estado haciendo un esfuerzo por borrar las ganancias acumuladas hace unos días, con la cripta cayendo en picado a mínimos de 18.600 dólares antes de subir ligeramente a su precio actual de 18.755 dólares.

En el momento de escribir este artículo, el BTC/USD está bajando un 2,2% a su precio actual de 18.755 dólares. Este es el punto donde la moneda ha estado operando durante los últimos días, con la presión de venta que se ha visto en la región de 19.000 dólares resultando significativa. Además, el lugar donde la moneda puede ir a continuación podría depender de si los toros pueden o no tomar el control de la misma antes de que baje de 18.600 o 18.400 dólares.

Sin embargo, las correcciones de precios de hoy han trazado una caída de la bandera que ha sido violada muy recientemente. Mientras tanto, mirando el gráfico diario, 17.500, 17.300 y 17.100 dólares son los principales niveles de soporte, dejando espacio para que el BTC/USD caiga aún más. El RSI (14) de la moneda acaba de caer en picado hasta el nivel 55. Por el contrario, el BTC/USD puede ver niveles de resistencia de 20.500, 20.700 y 20.600 dólares si sube por encima de las medias móviles.

Tendencia a medio plazo del BTC/USD: Rango (Gráfico 4H)

En el gráfico de 4 horas, podemos ver que los osos están volviendo al mercado, operando por debajo de los promedios móviles de 9 y 21 días, pero romper por debajo del límite inferior del canal puede causar una mayor caída. Mientras tanto, los 18.200 dólares y menos pueden ser visitados si el BTC/USD rompe la barrera mencionada.

BTCUSD – Gráfico de 4 horas

Sin embargo, si los compradores pueden empujar el mercado por encima de los promedios móviles de 9 y 21 días, los operadores pueden esperar una nueva prueba en el nivel de resistencia de 19.000 dólares. Romper la resistencia mencionada puede permitir que los toros prueben al alza los $19,200 y más, pero el RSI (14) está cruzando por debajo del nivel de 40, lo que indica señales bajistas adicionales.