21. febrero 2024

Bitcoin bull run according to plan B

Bitcoin bulls are on a roll.

On Dec. 17, the No. 1 cryptocurrency broke the sound barrier at $23,000 for the first time, continuing its lunar journey. With the price gains, the bullish forecasts also know no stopping. Opinion ECHO.

In the days following Bitcoin all-time highs, Twitter is a fun place to be. I-told-you-so slogans are being bandied about like there’s no tomorrow. Understandable, after all, it took the No. 1 cryptocurrency a whopping three years to get to the level it was trading at in late 2017.

To be best prepared for the coming bull run, it may be worth taking a look at past bitcoin cycles. Accordingly, an old acquaintance has put the gains from past bull markets on top of the price level. It is, you guessed it, PlanB.

PlanB is the originator of the stock-to-flow model. An uber-bullish price model that ties Bitcoin prices to the scarcity of the commodity. With each halving, BTC becomes scarcer, leading to exorbitant price swings in the medium term. Meanwhile, the question that is troubling the Bitcoin community is whether each halving reduces the returns, or price gains, compared to the previous cycle. While BTC made up about 10,000 percent from November 2012 to July 2016, it was «only» 2,000 percent in the second halving epoch.

However, if BTC were to rise to PlanB’s predicted value of $288,000 by the end of 2021, that would mean a gain of about 2,800 percent from the underlying $10,000. However, this is not compatible with the narrative of diminishing returns.

Still, PlanB stands by its price prediction, writing on Twitter that people can get over the idea that cycles are getting longer and less profitable:

R.I.P. «lengthening cycles» and «diminishing returns.»

Let’s wait and see.

Guggenheim Partners: bitcoin’s fair value is $400,000

The continued bullish behavior of Guggenheim Partners also caused a stir. The asset manager had only recently announced that it wanted to invest up to 10 percent from the Macro Opportunities Fund capitalized with 5.3 billion US dollars in BTC. To some extent, this has already been done. The accumulation has begun since BTC stood at 10,000 US dollars.

Now Scott Minerd, chief strategist at Guggenheim, also explains why Bitcoin is considered a great opportunity. Internal analyses have shown a fair value of no less than 400,000 US dollars per Bitcoin, Minerd told Bloomberg. He said he was «delighted» by the recent price rally.

Minerd links his daring price prediction of 400,000 US dollars to Bitcoin’s similarity to gold.